Cause to Complain
by Misopogon | September 1st, 2009
It hurts.
Injuries are a part of the game.
But at some point, they become more than part of the game. A key injury at a key time can seem to make a big difference to a ballclub. Then again, over such a short sample, statisticians say that the difference in performance is negligible, and that since all teams eventually experience lost time to injuries, it all evens out.
But Mets fans know there is nothing “even” about this season. There is nothing fair.
So let’s prove it.
Let’s figure out the point at which statistics takes a hike, the point at which we can look at a sports team, any sports team, and say “this is just completely unfair — we have no idea how good that team might have been.”
I’m going to pick an arbitrary number, so low that whether you’re a Mets partisan, a Yankee fan, or root for an SEC school, we can all come to a consensus that any injury mark below this point constitutes a “free pass” season.
50 percent.
That means over the course of an entire season, you get less than half of the innings/minutes played by the entire team from your starting position players. Fair enough?
Let’s start with a case study: a Cincinnati Red fan last week said that his team has to be the most injured in history:
| CIN Innings total | |||
| 1182.2 | |||
| Pos | Starter | Innings | % |
| C | Ramon Hernandez | 419.0 | 35.44% |
| 1B | Joey Votto | 837.1 | 70.81% |
| 2B | Brandon Phillips | 1060.2 | 89.68% |
| 3B | Encarnacion/Rosales | 752.1 | 63.62% |
| SS | Alex Gonzalez | 587.1 | 49.66% |
| LF | Jery Hairston/Laynce Nix | 581.0 | 49.15% |
| CF | Willy Taveras | 820.0 | 69.36% |
| RF | Jay Bruce | 695.2 | 58.81% |
| 5751.7 | 60.82% |
No.
I even tried running the pitchers different ways, and still, no. Sixty percent is on the unlucky side, but still, the Reds can’t blame injury unfairness for their 2009 season.
Let’s try another.
| PHI Innings total | |||
| 1157.1 | |||
| Pos | Starter | Innings | % |
| C | Carlos Ruiz | 716.2 | 61.90% |
| 1B | Ryan Howard | 1100.0 | 95.07% |
| 2B | Chase Utley | 1092.1 | 94.38% |
| 3B | Pedro Feliz | 1072.0 | 92.65% |
| SS | Jimmy Rollins | 1089.1 | 94.12% |
| LF | Raul Ibanez | 878.2 | 75.90% |
| CF | Shane Victorino | 1087.2 | 93.96% |
| RF | Jayson Werth | 1012.1 | 87.47% |
| 8046.9 | 86.93% |
Whoa. If 75 percent is normal, 60 percent is the low end, and 85 percent is the high end, the Phillies this year are beyond the range of lucky. In other words, it’s not just that they’re a good team; their unbelievable health makes the Phillies just past the point where you have to say they’ve been luckier than good.
So what about our guys?
| NYM Innings total | |||
| 1157.2 | |||
| Pos | Starter | Innings | % |
| C | Brian Schnieder | 381.0 | 32.92% |
| 1B | Carlos Delgado | 217.2 | 18.77% |
| 2B | Luis Castillo | 919.0 | 79.42% |
| 3B | David Wright | 993.2 | 85.83% |
| SS | Jose Reyes | 305.1 | 26.37% |
| LF | Daniel Murphy | 213.2 | 18.42% |
| CF | Carlos Beltran | 522.2 | 45.13% |
| RF | Ryan Church/Jeff Francoeur | 858.0 | 74.14% |
| 4408.9 | 47.62% |
47.62 percent!
Out of the time you’ve watched the Mets this season, you only were looking at a starter playing any given position 47.62 percent of the time. More than half of 2009 for the Mets has been played by replacements.
It.
Has.
Been.
That.
Kind.
Of.
Year.
Updates | Misopogon | 
September 1, 2009
By Keyser, September 1, 2009 @ 7:10 pm
Your statistics are skewed by the Daniel Murphy numbers. More often than not, he hasnt played becasue of poor performance/platoon/preference for Sheff/Tatis/Reed/etc.
[Reply]
By Misopogon:
September 2nd, 2009 at 8:05 am
Murph has put in 642 hours at 1st base this season. I see your point, but for the purposes of this snapshot, I think this works out. Is Murph at 1st because he belongs at 1st base, or is he there because Delgado is hurt?
Keep in mind that the Mets have had a lot of injuries to the second level as well (e.g. Sheff). Reed’s numbers don’t really make a difference since he’s used as a defensive replacement and spot starter. Keep in mind that the mean is still 75 percent — you’re supposed to have some of this going around.
[Reply]